Nothing but a theory..

Watching the events of Middle East specially of Syria whilst trying hard to ignore the media seems an impossible task. We hear nonstop accusations of massacres of impossible numbers by unknown assailants on peoples of unknown villages and suburbs not to mention the  mandatory video clips spooling back and forth on corpses from different angels underlining the  supposed proof of genocide . Who is to blame depends as always on the news outlet we watch, fact however is the so called Syrian opposition stopped fighting over a year ago as they saw an influx of non Syrian Wahhabi fighters hijacking their protest movements and turning it into a civil war. The Wahhabi's whose ideology dictates a view of Islam that considers all other branches as heretical, come mostly from Saudi Arabia , they believe spilling their blood (heretics) is a duty which does not carry a sin… (pathological extremists)

But this does not seem to be  the actual worrying issue…. ………..lets take a trip back in time !!…Remembering the years of 1978 and 1979, Iran was in a massive transitional period, due to the revolution that had occurred……the whole region was suddenly in danger of a chain reaction….suddenly, out of nowhere….the rising of a Saddam Hussein !!!! one remembers  suddenly him being courted by the Persian Gulf Arab heads of states as the new Arab leader, saviour, and they even called him the new Arab hope…..Europeans and American heads of states and ministers started coming and going to Baghdad, promises of support and gratitude were on such levels that Saddam Husain, overwhelmed from international encouragements, incredible amounts of Money, credits and the promise that his military gains shall be internationally recognize.. invaded Iran…  ….we all know the 8 years of hell in that region and the unadulterated support Iraq received (not to mention the WMD given to Saddam Hussein, that were used against Iranian soldiers and townships after they were liberated) . .. looking back one can only laugh at his (Saddam Hussein)  naivety and yes stupidity initiated through vanity caused by all the declarations of support and flattery… He not only lost the war but realized how badly his country had suffered, furthermore the manner in which all those supporters had vanished caused him to literally snap..... his subsequent behaviour  (occupying one of his staunch ex supporters) is one of the countless reasons for the fate he had to finally endure.

Back to today, going back a few steps and looking at the bigger picture, causes a deja vu……

Today, we have a new/old situation, we have the so called Arab spring…. Where all pro US regimes have started  falling and replaced by rational more or less democratic systems, thus a new reason for the Persian Gulf Arab leaders to start looking for a way out….Bahrain, Eastern Saudi Arabia, Yemen are also experiencing tumults,wish for change and separatist aspirations….. Iran seems as always the best boogieman (but untouchable), yet Syria as a staunch ally of Iran, an easier prey and a great diversion of attention from their own misery. The Syrian Alavite elites  (recognized as Shia by Grand Ayatollahs of the Shia faith)…makes them legitimate targets by Jihadists for reasons mentioned above….not to forget financial promises , arms and logistics… hope is to topple Assads system .. and absolutely no plans as to what next… … so, the same old games of 1978-9 starts all over again….this time however, the tool is not Arab Nationalism as was the case of Saddam Hussein, but one of MI6’s favorite tools, “religon”  The new Champion seems to be  “Rajab- Teyeb Erdoghan”

Erdoghan the PM of Turkey has also "suddenly" received special attention and courted by the Arab petro elites, one distinctly remembers the applause he received as guest of honor by the Arabs ….the result of these special invitations...was a diminishing support and friendship with a/his family friend ..The Assads. After a few months it all became open hostilities, and now we are experiencing heavy border skirmishes and if he is not careful, the Arabs will push him into a war ….. Keeping in mind, the daily endorsements Erdoghan receives, the calls he gets and the promises he gets to hear….the investments…..It all sounds so familiar (remember the Saddam era ?)…..Erdoghan was a street vendor, selling head scarfs and he made it right to the top… he is by all means a  decent man, but a man nontheless… Though “Vanity” should not be underestimated, we ought not forget, that Erdoghans background makes him all the more receptive for flattery and easier that most to shepherd into a wanted position …..We however, do not wish a repeat of history…… One knows Iranians and Turks are cousins by nature and their culture is one and the same , the only thing separating them is the language which almost half the Iranians already master, so a war between Iran and Turkey is like a war between USA and Canada…. an impossibility…. One simply hopes that history does not repeat itself for the sake of Turkey and Syria….. that Vanity fails to win over reason.

Historically Iran never lets its allies alone…. Syria is an important ally of Iran, no matter how you look at it… From Iran’s point of view, Syria can not fall and it must not fall…..But,if the status Quo is not sustainable, then a Lebanon style decade awaits the region with new power poles emerging.....poles that are more powerful than any satellite Governments hoped for…whatever the case, this Arab (Syrian) spring is not authentic and it will fail… unless it becomes the NATO spring very much like the Lybian spring… in that case, ones guess is as good as the other.