Defence doctrine ....
Israel, is desperately and ridiculously trying to start a conflict between Iran and the USA,the Israeli persistence of Iran being apocalyptic and unpredictable has its roots in the Israeli understanding of setting the stage for an eventual conflict.The tactic of repeating an allegation no matter how far fetched, becomes psychotropic, specially by the majority of the US citizens(a la Joe the six pack)who happen to be very obedient, when in a state of war.The Majority of the US citizens could probably not even point at Iran on a world map, yet due to the likes of Fox News amongst others, with their anti Iran and pro Israel propaganda,50% are willing to go to war with.
Whatever the case, Iran has a duty to defend its borders and people, so they must be having a strategy, because Iran must know, nothing can stop a strategic will for war by Israel and its powerful lobby in the US, since USA and its young will have to be fighting Israel's war this time..... Should Israel sink a ship in the Persian Gulf and blame it on Iran, or attack Iran from Georgia, and declare their rout as Jordan->Iraq->Iran, then it would mean, Irans retaliation will have to be against not only Israel, but also USA, because the attack could not have taken place without the NATO codes to safeguard military flights through countries that are controlled by the USA.(these codes can only be given by the USA)
Iran knows , UN can not stop an aggression, where Israel and the US are concerned (like Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza...)Iran's reaction could be reliance on its asymmetric capabilities, and it would not be limited to raining anti-ship missiles on aircraft carriers, or ships in the Persian Gulf... they also will have to move into Azerbaijan, to stop the flow of Oil to Israeli firms that finance this propaganda war, Georgia would have to be overrun,and the Oil Pipelines destroyed (should be no problem with 7 Million paramilitary Basij) US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Afghanistan could come under constant harassments. Israeli cities will not be concentrated upon, rather their Nuclear facilities could be targeted, which once damaged to a point of radioactive leakage, it would contaminate the Suez Canal, a constant, slow and exhausting process, to inflict causalities. Iran could unleash hell everywhere , only a massive and very long military and asymmetric reaction is probably considered the way to force the US to rethink its obligations towards Israel.(think about the Oil prices of over 100$ again)
Iran has learned, from its last 30 years of political and military confrontations,starting from the Iran Iraq war(1980-88), to the Hezbollah wars with Israel(1982-2000),the Gulf war of 1991, the recent Lebanon crisis of 2006 and the Iraq invasion of 2003. Iran probably knows by now, the key to success is not falling and at the same time inflicting causalities everywhere over a long period of time, may be 20 years....above all their understanding of how to stop Saudi Arabia from exporting Oil could be a game changer..(attacking 14 specific Oil fields, because Iran knows patriot missiles are 80% psychological and 20% a weapon to rely on)..
Nevertheless, I sincerely hope the USA, has the stamina and guts to keep Israel on a leash. The only certain issue here is, Iran will have its nuclear technology, no matter what, and the sooner one comes to term with it the sooner we can all exhale.
Comments